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<title>Weasel program</title>

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<span id="openzim-page-title" class="mw-page-title-main"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Weasel program</span></span>

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<p>The <b>weasel program</b> or <b>Dawkins' weasel</b> is a <a href="Thought_experiment" title="Thought experiment">thought experiment</a> and a variety of <a href="Computer_simulation" title="Computer simulation">computer simulations</a> illustrating it. Their aim is to demonstrate that the process that drives <a href="Evolution" title="Evolution">evolutionary</a> systems—random <a href="Mutation" title="Mutation">variation</a> combined with non-random cumulative <a href="Selection_(biology)" class="mw-redirect" title="Selection (biology)">selection</a>—is different from pure <a href="Chance_(philosophy)" class="mw-redirect" title="Chance (philosophy)">chance</a>.

</p><p>The thought experiment was formulated by <a href="Richard_Dawkins" title="Richard Dawkins">Richard Dawkins</a>, and the first simulation written by him; various other implementations of the program have been written by others.

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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Origin_and_structure">Origin and structure</h2></div>

<p>In chapter 3 of his book <i><a href="The_Blind_Watchmaker" title="The Blind Watchmaker">The Blind Watchmaker</a></i>, Dawkins gave the following introduction to the program, referencing the well-known <a href="Infinite_monkey_theorem" title="Infinite monkey theorem">infinite monkey theorem</a>:

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</style><blockquote class="templatequote"><p>I don't know who it was first pointed out that, given enough time, a <a href="Monkey" title="Monkey">monkey</a> bashing away at <a href="Randomness" title="Randomness">random</a> on a <a href="Typewriter" title="Typewriter">typewriter</a> could produce all the works of <a href="Shakespeare" class="mw-redirect" title="Shakespeare">Shakespeare</a>. The operative phrase is, of course, given enough time. Let us limit the task facing our monkey somewhat. Suppose that he has to produce, not the complete works of Shakespeare but just the short sentence 'Methinks it is like a <a href="Weasel" title="Weasel">weasel</a>', and we shall make it relatively easy by giving him a typewriter with a restricted keyboard, one with just the 26 (capital) letters, and a space bar. How long will he take to write this one little sentence?</p></blockquote>

<p>The scenario is staged to produce a string of <a href="Gibberish" title="Gibberish">gibberish</a> letters, assuming that the selection of each letter in a sequence of 28 characters will be random. The number of possible combinations in this random sequence is 27<sup>28</sup>, or about 10<sup>40</sup>, so the <a href="Probability" title="Probability">probability</a> that the monkey will produce a given sequence is extremely low. Any particular sequence of 28 characters could be selected as a "target" phrase, all equally as improbable as Dawkins's chosen target, "METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL".

</p><p>A <a href="Computer_program" title="Computer program">computer program</a> could be written to carry out the actions of Dawkins's <a href="Hypothesis" title="Hypothesis">hypothetical</a> monkey, continuously generating combinations of 26 letters and spaces at high speed. Even at the rate of millions of combinations per second, it is unlikely, even given the entire <a href="Age_of_the_universe" title="Age of the universe">lifetime of the universe</a> to run, that the program would ever produce the phrase "METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL". For a string of 28 characters, with 27 possible characters (A-Z plus space), any randomly generated string has the probability one in 27^28 of being correct; that is approximately one in 10^40. If a program generating 10 million strings per second had been running since the start of the universe (around 14 billion years, or 10^17 seconds), it would have only generated around 10^24 strings by now.

</p><p>Dawkins intends this example to illustrate a common misunderstanding of <a href="Evolution" title="Evolution">evolutionary</a> change, i.e. that <a href="DNA" title="DNA">DNA</a> sequences or <a href="Organic_compound" title="Organic compound">organic compounds</a> such as <a href="Proteins" class="mw-redirect" title="Proteins">proteins</a> are the result of atoms randomly combining to form more complex structures. In these types of computations, any sequence of <a href="Amino_acids" class="mw-redirect" title="Amino acids">amino acids</a> in a protein will be extraordinarily improbable (this is known as <a href="Hoyle's_fallacy" class="mw-redirect" title="Hoyle's fallacy">Hoyle's fallacy</a>). Rather, evolution proceeds by <a href="Hill_climbing" title="Hill climbing">hill climbing</a>, as in <a href="Adaptive_landscape" class="mw-redirect" title="Adaptive landscape">adaptive landscapes</a>.

</p><p>Dawkins then goes on to show that a process of <i>cumulative</i> selection can take far fewer steps to reach any given target. In Dawkins's words:

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<blockquote class="templatequote"><p>We again use our computer monkey, but with a crucial difference in its program. It again begins by choosing a random sequence of 28 letters, just as before ... it duplicates it repeatedly, but with a certain chance of random <a href="Error" title="Error">error</a> – 'mutation' – in the copying. The computer examines the <a href="Mutant" title="Mutant">mutant</a> nonsense phrases, the 'progeny' of the original phrase, and chooses the one which,<i> however slightly, </i>most resembles the target phrase, METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL.</p></blockquote>

<p>By repeating the procedure, a randomly generated sequence of 28 letters and spaces will be gradually changed each <a href="Generation" title="Generation">generation</a>. The sequences progress through each generation:

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<dl><dd>Generation 01:<style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r886049734">

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</style><span class="monospaced">   WDLTMNLT DTJBKWIRZREZLMQCO P</span> <sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>note 1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></dd>

<dd>Generation 02:<span class="monospaced">   WDLTMNLT DTJBSWIRZREZLMQCO P</span></dd>

<dd>Generation 10:<span class="monospaced">   MDLDMNLS ITJISWHRZREZ MECS P</span></dd>

<dd>Generation 20:<span class="monospaced">   MELDINLS IT ISWPRKE Z WECSEL</span></dd>

<dd>Generation 30:<span class="monospaced">   METHINGS IT ISWLIKE B WECSEL</span></dd>

<dd>Generation 40:<span class="monospaced">   METHINKS IT IS LIKE I WEASEL</span></dd>

<dd>Generation 43:<span class="monospaced">   METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL</span></dd></dl>

<p>Dawkins continues:

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<blockquote class="templatequote"><p>The exact time taken by the computer to reach the target doesn't matter. If you want to know, it completed the whole exercise for me, the first time, while I was out to lunch. It took about half an hour. (Computer enthusiasts may think this unduly slow. The reason is that the program was written in <a href="BASIC_programming_language" class="mw-redirect" title="BASIC programming language">BASIC</a>, a sort of computer baby-talk. When I rewrote it in <a href="Pascal_programming_language" class="mw-redirect" title="Pascal programming language">Pascal</a>, it took 11 seconds.) Computers are a bit faster at this kind of thing than monkeys, but the difference really isn't significant. What matters is the difference between the time taken by<i> cumulative </i>selection, and the time which the same computer, working flat out at the same rate, would take to reach the target phrase if it were forced to use the other procedure of<i> single-step selection: </i>about a million million million million million years. This is more than a million million million times as long as the universe has so far existed.</p></blockquote>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Implications_for_biology">Implications for biology</h2></div>

<p>The program aims to demonstrate that the preservation of small changes in an evolving string of characters (or <a href="Gene" title="Gene">genes</a>) can produce meaningful combinations in a relatively short time as long as there is some mechanism to select cumulative changes, whether it is a person identifying which traits are desirable (in the case of artificial selection) or a criterion of survival ("fitness") imposed by the environment (in the case of natural selection). Reproducing systems tend to preserve traits across generations, because the offspring inherit a copy of the parent's traits. It is the differences between offspring, the variations in copying, which become the basis for selection, allowing phrases closer to the target to survive, and the remaining variants to "die."

</p><p>Dawkins discusses the issue of the mechanism of selection with respect to his "biomorphs" program:

</p>

<blockquote class="templatequote"><p>The human eye has an active role to play in the story. It is the selecting agent. It surveys the litter of progeny and chooses one for breeding. ...Our model, in other words, is strictly a model of artificial selection, not natural selection. The criterion for 'success' is not the direct criterion of survival, as it is in true natural selection. In true natural selection, if a body has what it takes to survive, its genes automatically survive because they are inside it. So the genes that survive tend to be, automatically, those genes that confer on bodies the qualities that assist them to survive.</p></blockquote>

<p>Regarding the example's applicability to biological evolution, he is careful to point out that it has its limitations:

</p>

<blockquote class="templatequote"><p>Although the monkey/Shakespeare model is useful for explaining the distinction between single-step selection and cumulative selection, it is misleading in important ways. One of these is that, in each generation of selective 'breeding', the mutant 'progeny' phrases were judged according to the criterion of resemblance to a<i> distant ideal </i>target, the phrase METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL. Life isn't like that. Evolution has no long-term goal. There is no long-distance target, no final perfection to serve as a criterion for selection, although human vanity cherishes the absurd notion that our species is the final goal of evolution. In real life, the criterion for selection is always short-term, either simple survival or, more generally, reproductive success.</p></blockquote>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="More_complex_models">More complex models</h2></div>

<p>In <i>The Blind Watchmaker,</i> Dawkins goes on to provide a graphical model of <a href="Gene_selection" class="mw-redirect" title="Gene selection">gene selection</a> involving entities he calls biomorphs. These are <a href="Plane_(mathematics)" title="Plane (mathematics)">two-dimensional</a> sets of <a href="Line_(mathematics)" class="mw-redirect" title="Line (mathematics)">line segments</a> which bear relationships to each other, drawn under the control of "genes" that determine the appearance of the biomorph. By selecting entities from sequential generations of biomorphs, an experimenter can guide the evolution of the figures toward given shapes, such as "airplane" or "octopus" biomorphs.

</p><p>As a simulation, the biomorphs are not much closer to the actual genetic behavior of biological organisms. Like the Weasel program, their development is shaped by an external factor, in this case the decisions of the experimenter who chooses which of many possible shapes will go forward into the following generation. They do however serve to illustrate the concept of "genetic space," where each possible gene is treated as a <a href="Dimension" title="Dimension">dimension</a>, and the actual genomes of living organisms make up a tiny fraction of all possible gene combinations, most of which will not produce a viable organism. As Dawkins puts it, "however many ways there may be of being alive, it is certain that there are vastly more ways of being dead".

</p><p>In <i>Climbing Mount Improbable</i>, Dawkins responded to the limitations of the Weasel program by describing programs, written by other parties, that modeled the evolution of the <a href="Spider_web" title="Spider web">spider web</a>. He suggested that these programs were more realistic models of the evolutionary process, since they had no predetermined goal other than coming up with a web that caught more flies through a "trial and error" process. Spiderwebs were seen as good topics for evolutionary modeling because they were simple examples of biosystems that were easily visualized; the modeling programs successfully generated a range of spider webs similar to those found in nature.

</p>

<ul><li><a href="Genetic_algorithm" title="Genetic algorithm">Genetic algorithm</a></li>

<li><a href="Objections_to_evolution" title="Objections to evolution">Objections to evolution</a></li>

<li><a href="Watchmaker_analogy" title="Watchmaker analogy">Watchmaker analogy</a></li></ul>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Notes">Notes</h2></div>

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<li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">The 4th character of line 1 is missing in Dawkins' text; however line 2 suggests it was probably a T.</span>

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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2></div>

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</style><cite id="CITEREFDawkins1986" class="citation book cs1">Dawkins, Richard (1986). <i>The Blind Watchmaker</i>. Oxford University Press.</cite></li></ul>

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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2></div>

<ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.talkorigins.org/indexcc/CF/CF011_1.html">Talk.origins claim CF011_1 Dawkins' WEASEL simulation</a></li>

<li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://rosettacode.org/wiki/Evolutionary_algorithm">Evolutionary algorithm</a> - <a href="Rosetta_Code" title="Rosetta Code">Rosetta Code</a> page with implementations of the program in multiple programming languages</li></ul>

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</style><div id="Richard_Dawkins260" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="Richard_Dawkins" title="Richard Dawkins">Richard Dawkins</a></div></th></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div>

<ul><li><a href="Richard_Dawkins_bibliography" title="Richard Dawkins bibliography">Bibliography</a></li>

<li><a href="Views_of_Richard_Dawkins" title="Views of Richard Dawkins">Views</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Books</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><i><a href="The_Selfish_Gene" title="The Selfish Gene">The Selfish Gene</a></i> (1976)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Extended_Phenotype" title="The Extended Phenotype">The Extended Phenotype</a></i> (1982)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Blind_Watchmaker" title="The Blind Watchmaker">The Blind Watchmaker</a></i> (1986)</li>

<li><i><a href="River_Out_of_Eden" title="River Out of Eden">River Out of Eden</a></i> (1995)</li>

<li><i><a href="Climbing_Mount_Improbable" title="Climbing Mount Improbable">Climbing Mount Improbable</a></i> (1996)</li>

<li><i><a href="Unweaving_the_Rainbow" title="Unweaving the Rainbow">Unweaving the Rainbow</a></i> (1998)</li>

<li><i><a href="A_Devil's_Chaplain" title="A Devil's Chaplain">A Devil's Chaplain</a></i> (2003)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Ancestor's_Tale" title="The Ancestor's Tale">The Ancestor's Tale</a></i> (2004)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_God_Delusion" title="The God Delusion">The God Delusion</a></i> (2006)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Greatest_Show_on_Earth%3A_The_Evidence_for_Evolution" title="The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution">The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution</a></i> (2009)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Magic_of_Reality" title="The Magic of Reality"> The Magic of Reality: How We Know What's Really True</a></i> (2011)</li>

<li><i><a href="An_Appetite_for_Wonder" title="An Appetite for Wonder">An Appetite for Wonder: The Making of a Scientist</a></i> (2013)</li>

<li><i><a href="Brief_Candle_in_the_Dark" title="Brief Candle in the Dark">Brief Candle in the Dark: My Life in Science</a></i> (2015)</li>

<li><i><a href="Science_in_the_Soul" title="Science in the Soul">Science in the Soul: Selected Writings of a Passionate Rationalist</a></i> (2017)</li>

<li><i>Outgrowing God: A Beginner's Guide</i> (2019)</li>

<li><i>Books Do Furnish a Life: Reading and Writing Science</i> (2021)</li>

<li><i><a href="Flights_of_Fancy%3A_Defying_Gravity_by_Design_and_Evolution" title="Flights of Fancy: Defying Gravity by Design and Evolution">Flights of Fancy: Defying Gravity by Design and Evolution</a></i> (2021)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Genetic_Book_of_the_Dead" title="The Genetic Book of the Dead">The Genetic Book of the Dead</a></i> (2024)</li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Related works</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><i><a href="Growing_Up_in_the_Universe" title="Growing Up in the Universe">Growing Up in the Universe</a></i> (1991)</li>

<li><i><a href="Dawkins_vs._Gould" title="Dawkins vs. Gould">Dawkins vs. Gould</a></i> (2001)</li>

<li><i><a href="Beyond_Belief%3A_Science%2C_Religion%2C_Reason_and_Survival" title="Beyond Belief: Science, Religion, Reason and Survival">Beyond Belief</a></i> (2006)</li>

<li><i><a href="Richard_Dawkins%3A_How_a_Scientist_Changed_the_Way_We_Think" title="Richard Dawkins: How a Scientist Changed the Way We Think">Richard Dawkins: How a Scientist Changed the Way We Think</a></i> (2006)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Oxford_Book_of_Modern_Science_Writing" title="The Oxford Book of Modern Science Writing">The Oxford Book of Modern Science Writing</a></i> (2008)</li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Documentaries</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<ul><li><i><a href="Nice_Guys_Finish_First" title="Nice Guys Finish First">Nice Guys Finish First</a></i> (1987)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Blind_Watchmaker_(film)" title="The Blind Watchmaker (film)">The Blind Watchmaker</a></i> (1987)</li>

<li><i><a href="Break_the_Science_Barrier" title="Break the Science Barrier">Break the Science Barrier</a></i> (1996)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Atheism_Tapes" title="The Atheism Tapes">The Atheism Tapes</a></i> (2004)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Enemies_of_Reason" title="The Enemies of Reason">The Enemies of Reason</a></i> (2007)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Genius_of_Charles_Darwin" title="The Genius of Charles Darwin">The Genius of Charles Darwin</a></i> (2008)</li>

<li><i><a href="Faith_School_Menace%3F" title="Faith School Menace?">Faith School Menace?</a></i> (2010)</li>

<li><i><a href="Sex%2C_Death_and_the_Meaning_of_Life" title="Sex, Death and the Meaning of Life">Sex, Death and the Meaning of Life</a></i> (2012)</li>

<li><i><a href="The_Unbelievers" title="The Unbelievers">The Unbelievers</a></i> (2013)</li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">See also</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">

<li><a href="Atheist_Bus_Campaign" title="Atheist Bus Campaign">Atheist Bus Campaign</a></li>

<li><a href="Out_Campaign" title="Out Campaign">Out Campaign</a></li>

<li><a href="Gerin_oil" class="mw-redirect" title="Gerin oil">Gerin oil</a></li>

<li><a href="Richard_Dawkins_Foundation_for_Reason_and_Science" title="Richard Dawkins Foundation for Reason and Science">Foundation for Reason and Science</a></li>

<li><a href="Simonyi_Professor_for_the_Public_Understanding_of_Science" title="Simonyi Professor for the Public Understanding of Science">Professorship for the Public Understanding of Science</a></li>

<li><a href="Ultimate_Boeing_747_gambit" title="Ultimate Boeing 747 gambit">Ultimate Boeing 747 gambit</a></li>

<li><a href="Lalla_Ward" title="Lalla Ward">Lalla Ward</a></li>

<li><a href="Marian_Dawkins" title="Marian Dawkins">Marian Dawkins</a></li>

<li><a href="Middle_World" title="Middle World">Middle World</a></li>

<li><a href="God's_utility_function" class="mw-redirect" title="God's utility function">God's utility function</a></li>

<li><a href="Courtier's_reply" title="Courtier's reply">Courtier's reply</a></li>

<li><a href="Spectrum_of_theistic_probability" title="Spectrum of theistic probability">Spectrum of theistic probability</a></li>

<li><a href="Universal_Darwinism" title="Universal Darwinism">Universal Darwinism</a></li>

<li><i><a href="Endless_Forms_Most_Beautiful_(album)" title="Endless Forms Most Beautiful (album)">Endless Forms Most Beautiful</a></i></li>

<li><i><a href="When_the_Professor_Got_Stuck_in_the_Snow" title="When the Professor Got Stuck in the Snow">When the Professor Got Stuck in the Snow</a></i></li>

<li><a href="Richard_Dawkins_Award" title="Richard Dawkins Award">Richard Dawkins Award</a></li></ul>

</div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div>

<ul><li><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="Category"></span></span> Category</li></ul>

</div></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

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